This is CNBC Senior Markets Commentator Mike Santoli’s daily notebook with insights on market trends, stocks and statistics. Here is the oversold bounce that seemed about right. The market is making a tentative case that widely-watched support areas could hold as fast-moving indicators of macroeconomic stress (bond yields, dollar, oil) take some pressure off equities. With some internal market measures stretched after three weeks of selling (percentage of stocks above short-term averages, consecutive-day losing streaks for indices, elevated call and put options indices), the S&P 500 is able to take off from the 3,900 level which represents the uptrend line of the June rally and several other past support areas. Wednesday’s rally was cemented after a Wall Street Journal article dropped the Fed’s latest trend toward a 0.75 percentage point hike the following week instead of half a point. While the market was already leaning slightly in that direction, the perceived signal of the Fed’s intentions provided a good test of how markets are already positioned for such an outcome. The US dollar index (whose bullish rampage everyone has suddenly noticed) jumped and then couldn’t hold it. Treasury yields (as noted Tuesday night, pushed higher by huge corporate debt issuance to start the week) dipped slightly on Wednesday. Oil is one of the main victims of global slowdown fears and the dollar’s 20-year high, not to mention some apparent stress in the speculating community. Gasoline is almost flat on the year, good for the softer landing/real economy story, if not for the quick money. With a stock market like this one caught in an eight-month broad-based downtrend, a sharp ramp from the lows, and a sudden surrender of more than half of the rally, the first step is for you to respond to oversold conditions with a rebound. . Then it’s about assessing how far it goes (in this case, can the S&P 500 retake 4100?), and then does a macro/fundamental story emerge to give it credibility and keep pullbacks contained? I noted on Tuesday that broad indices have struggled to advance when the 10-year yield has been above 3%, but it’s worth noting some signs that stocks’ sensitivity to yield levels may have dimmed. a little. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were down several percentage points the last time the 10-year bond was at current readings near 3.3%, for what it’s worth. Much of Wednesday’s attention in research notes and social media commentary is focused on the prospect of a financial “crash” triggered by erratic and extreme moves in yields, energy markets, currency pairs , etc. of Europe and the US Certainly, history shows that tightening cycles have a tendency to create dislocations in markets at some point, although there is not much evidence of anything imminent. Several indicators of “financial stress” are elevated, but still below very worrying levels. And, as noted, US companies on Tuesday valued some $35 billion in new debt, a sign that markets are doing well. The high yield index’s risk spread is above recent benign levels, but falls short of the danger zone. Apple holds its new product launch event when stocks are in a universally observed support zone in the low $150s dating back to a short-term peak set exactly one year ago. I don’t think Apple needs to, or should, lead a broad market rally from here (valuation still full, still above 7% S&P weight), but it shouldn’t fall apart. A sideways cut would be ideal as cyclical parts of the market (industrials, banks holding up pretty well) outperform a bit. The breadth of the market is pretty good, 2:1 volume up : down. Credit markets are firmer. VIX is down a notch, still not offering a “totally clear” forecast, though VIX futures prices are in the “normal” fix, sending no bad vibes at the moment.