As the dust of Black Friday settles and shoppers take advantage of Cyber Monday deals, fashion players will be poring over their latest sales reports for clues as to the direction consumer spending will take in the coming months. . But given the unpredictability and fragility in which the industry operates, many will refrain from drawing any firm conclusions.
It is not clear if the first holiday shopping figures, as well as the release this week of consumer confidence indicators on both sides of the Atlantic, will restore the cautious optimism many felt at the start of the year. Back then, the fashion industry was on the mend after nearly two years of disruption from the pandemic. The state of fashion 2022 of Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company, found that some brands were already outperforming their pre-Covid performance, benefiting from a burst of pent-up consumer demand that was expected to continue. But the Ukrainian War, the cost-of-living crisis and continued supply chain headaches helped erode optimism in 2022.
Next year will likely be a continuation of what the fashion industry faced in the second half of 2022. “Challenging” and “unpredictable” were the words most used by executives surveyed for our latest the fashion status report, to be released on BoF VOICES this week, when they are asked to describe the conditions in which their companies will operate in the coming year.
Knowing now how fragile recoveries can be, any glimmer of hope may be fleeting given the variety of challenges economies continue to face. “Winter this year has just started, and a few warm weeks in November does not automatically mean a warm season,” Carsten Brzski, chief economist at ING Germany, warned last Thursday when conducting a monthly opinion poll of trade executives. retail and other industries in Germany. , the Ifo Business Climate Index, showed a solid monthly rebound in November. “Today’s Ifo index gives hope of some stabilization, nothing more, nothing less.”
On Tuesday, we will have a few more indicators that will clarify the picture. In more general terms, including those of the European Commission. Last week, however, the Commission downplayed its quick estimates that suggested a month-on-month recovery in consumer confidence in the EU, noting that confidence levels are still “well below their long-term average.” In the US, where consumer confidence fell in October after two straight months of gains, the November figures released this week may give an idea of whether the Federal Reserve will start to ease interest rate increases designed to control inflation.
For months now, rising prices have cast a shadow over the fashion industry, seriously affecting consumer behavior, particularly among low-income shoppers when it comes to spending on discretionary items like clothing and footwear. “The rising cost of living has long been one of the most feared phenomena in Western countriesAnd now that this fear has come true, the inflation rate has drawn a lot of attention,” wrote Alberto Prati, professor of economics at the London School of Economics, in a recent blog. “In 2022, Europe, the United Kingdom and other areas that have not experienced major inflationary bouts for four decades have seen record levels of inflation. And let’s face it, she added, “inflation makes people miserable.”
It is a point that does not go unnoticed by fashion executives. Inflation is a top concern among executives surveyed for the coming year, according to the seventh annual edition of the state of fashion. The report, which is being released this week on the second day of BoF VOICES 2022, the BoF’s annual gathering for the industry’s big thinkers, cites relentlessly high inflation among multiple factors contributing to an expected industry slowdown in 2023. As in previous editions, The state of fashion 2023 sheds light on how the industry can, and in some cases already does, respond and adapt to turbulent conditions, while identifying where brands can seize opportunities.
You can get more information about The state of fashion 2023 at BoF VOICES 2022. Over the course of five two-hour sessions during a three-day event starting this Tuesday, we unite the movers and shakers of the global fashion industry with thought leaders and inspirational people who shape the world. in general, including Demna.
Register now Join us for all of BoF VOICES or the sessions of your choice, free of charge.
What else to watch this week
Japan unemployment, retail sales
The Conference Board Monthly US Consumer Confidence Survey
EU monthly business and consumer sentiment
Broadway debut of “The Collaboration,” a play about Andy Warhol and Jean-Michel Basquiat’s artistic relationship in 1984, following its world premiere in London in February
BoF VOICES 2022:CNN clarissa room talk about the war in Ukraine
Victoria’s Secret and PVH third-quarter earnings
Eurozone annual consumer inflation
Publication of the second part of the Circular Economy Package of the European Commission, whose proposals include a new law that obliges companies to substantiate green declarations
India Quarterly GDP (Q2)
BoF VOICES 2022: Fear of God jerry lawrence talks about building a diffusion line strategy
Ulta Beauty Gains
investor day farfetch
The launch of Art Basel Miami, which will run through December 3; Pantone reveals its color of the year at the event
BoF VOICES 2022: Nobel Peace Prize Malala Yousafzai talk about activism
US unemployment data for November
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